As we all know, Arizona has led the country in distressed home sales over the last several years.
As I have predicted, the tide has turned. January marked a record-setting month, both in home values and in the proportion of distressed sales to traditional equity sales.
According to Michael Orr, Director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at Arizona State University’s W.P. Carey School of Business, we showed a decrease in single-family home foreclosures, from 4,200 in January 2012, to 2,400 in January 2013. In addition, the supply of homes is down 42 percent from a year earlier.
Tom Ruff, a real estate analyst with the Information Market recently said, “Foreclosures are not the driving force in Phoenix’s housing market anymore.” He goes on to say, “There’s not another big wave of foreclosures coming. There’s no shadow inventory. Foreclosures will decline to new lows in a few years.”
Compound the effect of the decline in distressed sales, The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service reports that the 2012 average month’s supply of inventory was only 2.95 months, compared to more than 12 month’s supply in 2007.
Of all of the statistics I read every day, the following charts show what I consider to be the most promising as it relates to our housing recovery. These charts analyze the breakdown of Traditional Sales vs. Distressed Sales statistics for January 2013.
Another sure sign of the real estate rebound is the return of new homebuilders. Last year, almost 12,000 new homes were either started or built in the metro Phoenix area, the most since 2007. Real estate analyst R.L. Brown is predicting as many as 16,000 new homes will be built this year. With interest rates still at an all-time low, all indicators point to a full recovery for Arizona real estate.
John Karadsheh is a licensed REALTOR with Coldwell Banker, Trails and Paths Premier Properties. He also is an Associate Broker, Accredited Buyers Representative, a Certified Residential Specialist, and was voted the No. 2 Residential Real Estate Agent in Arizona by Ranking Arizona, the Best of Arizona Business. You can contact John with any of your real estate questions. Call him at (602) 615-0843, or go to his Web site at www.BuyAndSellAZ.com.
