Ron Brown
RESIDENTIAL RESALE SUPPLY TRENDS
While active listings for sale continued to decline each week in July, they appear to have leveled off between week 31 and week 32.
This provided a slight relief for those buyers who have been overwhelmed by increased competition for homes and multiple offers. Week 32, this year, was the first week of August, and supply measured 19.7 percent below the same week last year. Active listings dropped by 4,350, going from 22,047 active listings to 17,697. Supply still is 11.4 percent higher than it was in 2013. However, there is far less selection under $300,000 for buyers.
| Active Listings | Week 32, 2014 | Week 32, 2015 | % Change |
| Under $200,000 | 8,185 | 4,833 | -41.0% |
| $200,000 – $300,000 | 5,127 | 4,152 | -19.0% |
| $300,000 – $500,000 | 5,045 | 4,816 | -4.5% |
| Over $500,000 | 3,690 | 3,896 | +5.6% |
RESIDENTIAL RESALE DEMAND TRENDS
Listings under contract also have been declining, but the decline is not outside of normal seasonal trends. Listings under contract are those properties scheduled to record as sales sometime over the next four to six weeks, making it a leading indicator for future sales volume. Week 32, in 2015, measured 7.4 percent higher than the same week last year, and 12.3 percent lower than 2013. Demand was higher in 2013 due to investors capitalizing on the abundance of foreclosures and short sales under $200,000.
To see a significantly greater increase in overall contract activity and sales volume, more move-in ready properties would need to be available on the lower end for first-time and lower-income buyers. With only 4,833 available and 4,500 under contract, there isn’t much room for this market to expand in sales even though there is significant demand. Buyers cannot buy what isn’t for sale.
The market still is hot between $200,000 and $300,000. The 19 percent decline in competition, combined with a 21 percent increase in contract activity, puts sellers at an advantage. Over $300,000 is seeing a significant improvement, as well. However, there is more supply for buyers to choose from in this range, which balances out the advantage between the two sides.
| Listings Under Contract | Week 32, 2014 | Week 32, 2015 | % Change |
| Under $200,000 | 4,752 | 4,500 | -5.3% |
| $200,000 – $300,000 | 2,236 | 2,710 | +21.2% |
| $300,000 – $500,000 | 1,498 | 1,757 | +17.3% |
| Over $500,000 | 633 | 824 | +30.2% |
The Listing Success Rate measures the percentage of listings that successfully close versus cancel or expire, when coming off of active status in the Multiple Listing Service, or MLS. Currently, normal listings have a success rate of 77 percent, a 7 percent increase from this time last year. Short sales saw a 14 percent increase from 50 percent to 64 percent.
HOW MESA COMPARES TO THE OVERALL MARKET
Mesa’s trends are reflecting the overall market. Supply is down 22.8 percent from this time last year, and still 5.2 percent above 2013. Demand is up 8.7 percent from 2014, but still 6.5 percent below 2013. Listings are seeing a 79 percent success rate, up 6 percent from this time last year. The supply shortage is primarily under $300,000 in Mesa, as it is across the Valley. Listing Success Rates also are highest under $300,000 in Mesa.
For additional information, call Ron Brown at (602) 618-9512, or visit the website at TrailsAndPaths.com. Coldwell Banker Trails and Paths, serving the East Valley for the past 16 years, is located in The Village at Las Sendas.